U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018.

The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.

U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.

In the outlook, the EIA states that global liquid fuels end-of-year inventories grew by an estimated 0.4 million bpd in 2018. The organization expects they will grow by 0.2 MMbpd in 2019 and by 0.4 MMbpd in 2020.

The EIA forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $54 per barrel in 2019 and $61 per barrel in 2020, according to the latest short-term energy outlook. It expects Brent prices will average $61 per barrel in 2019 and $65 per barrel in 2020.

Last week, analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) forecasted that the price of WTI will average $69 per barrel this year and $76 per barrel in 2020. FSMR analysts see the average price of Brent rising to $75 per barrel in 2019 and $82 per barrel in 2020.

The EIA is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. It collects, analyzes and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment, according to the EIA’s website.

The Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established EIA as the primary federal government authority on energy statistics and analysis, building upon systems and organizations first established in 1974.


Original post of Rigzone.com